The Kansas City chiefs, led by one-time (so far) regular season and Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes, are statistically the favourites to take home a second Lombardi Trophy in as many years, according to NFL.com. But is that second ring really such a sure fire bet?
Boasting the leagues number 1 ranked offence with 4854 yards through the air and another 1799 on the ground, it seems teams simply couldn’t keep up with that high flying offence… except they could, most of the time. In the 16 regular season games the Kansas offence won 8 of their 14 games by only one score (within 8 points) and lost two of the remaining games. This doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that this is a team that could comfortably go out against any opposition and simply blow them out of the water with such a high scoring attack.
What could be the main reason that these games end up as close as they are at the end of the 4th quarter? The answer could actually lie with one of their greatest strengths – Patrick Mahomes himself.
I would also like to stress that Mahomes is absolutely a top 3 elite quarterback in the NFL and will be one of the greatest of all time if he continues developing the way that he is. With 4740 passing yards this season, a 38:6 TD to INT ratio and a pass completion rate above 66%, this fact was never in doubt. One of the biggest issues Mahomes has faced this season is the sacks that he takes. In the 2020 regular season Mahomes took 22 sacks in comparison to only 17 sacks in 2019.
Now, KC did lose star tackle Mitchell Schwartz this year so naturally without a top offensive lineman, it is likely that your quarterback will take more sacks. But. The line itself has actually held up pretty well this year, the issue comes with the size of Mahomes drop back when the play calls for a mid-to-deep range pass. Most quarterbacks will take a 5-7 step drop on these passes, to give them ample space to generate the power and velocity needed on the ball for these type of passes but Mahomes has a tendency to drop much deeper straight from the snap.
There are instances of him taking 10-11 yards back and the issue this causes is that the tackles dealing with speed rushers off the edge ideally try to to sweep the rusher round the back of the tackle box, behind the quarterback neutralising them completely. Except because Mahomes is so deep off the drop back, the rushers are being led straight into where he is and the linemen have absolutely no chance to stop it. Providing they beat the Browns on Sunday, they could face a Bills side with the 6th best pass rush in the league, which will only make this problem more apparent.
Given how many absolutely insane plays Mahomes has made doing exactly this is too many to count on one hand so the chances of him taking this tendency out of his game are slim to none so from a play calling perspective, a potential fix is to increase the volume of the short passing game which absolutely does not suit the Chiefs style of offense.
On the right, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson
Again, providing they beat the Browns, the Chiefs will face either Josh Allen’s Bills or Lamar Jackson’s Ravens in the AFC Championship game. Lets say for instance that the Bills make it to that game. As already mentioned, the Bills boast the 6th best pass rush in the league and have the 9th ranked secondary according to PFF which is likely to negate some of the power of those explosive, deep plays KC has become synonymous with. The tighter coverage will mean Mahomes is likely to hold the ball for longer periods of time in the pocket and 5 of his 6 INT’s this year have come from when he holds the ball for 2.5 seconds or more. Even if it is the Ravens who win on Saturday, they have the 5th best secondary according to PFF and is led by Marcus Peters who already has 4 picks this year. Either way it will be a problem for Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Finally, last season in their Superbowl run, KC created a habit of falling behind early and rallying late to win games, particularly in the post season. This is unlikely to happen two years in a row, yet the Chiefs have persisted with this habit of going behind in the 1st quarter of games. in 12 total quarters across the season, KC were trailing, and 9 of those was the opening quarter of the game. They are likely to face Buffalo who (if it isn’t already clear I expect to the AFC representative in the Superbowl) in a similar metric, of the 11 games they are leading by the end of the 1st quarter, they went on to win 10 of them, the only exception being the famous ‘Hail Murray’ against the Cardinals in Week 10. Unless the Chiefs get out to a fast start against the Bills in the AFC Championship game, their late game miracles might not be enough to save them.
Superbowl Prediction: Buffalo vs Green Bay, Green Bay to win
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