The 2021 NFL draft is taking place in Cleveland this year at the end of April, with the best college prospects presumably excited to find out in which cities they will begin to forge their professional careers. With this in mind, it’s always fun to predict where these young stars will end up, given some of the shocking decisions made by GM’s over the past 5 years (Looking at you, Chicago…). Quick point to note, I’ve made these choices based on both what is a need for the particular team and what is available on the board at the time. Now that that’s sorted, lets get into the predictions!
1) Trevor Lawrence QB – Jacksonville Jaguars
The consensus number 1 pick from Clemson. Lawrence has been labelled a generational talent by many outlets and is a solid choice to be the face of the Jaguars franchise for years to come, especially under first year coach Urban Meyer. With a strong arm and an innate ability to read and pick apart a defence, the only potential worry could come from dealing with the pressure of all the hype and the weight of being the number 1 overall pick, but I can’t see this being an issue at all.
2) Zack Wilson QB – New York Jets
This pick was effectively locked in when the Jets traded former No. 3 overall pick from 2018 Sam Darnold to the Panthers. Wilson shone at the BYU pro day and produced good numbers in the Combine drills. He has a great ability to make off-platform throws and is able to make something from nothing – a key trait when you play for teams in rebuilding mode. New head coach Robert Saleh and new offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur get a very special player to kickstart the revival of the Jets.
3) Justin Fields QB – San Francisco 49ers
Given the unanimity of picks 1 and 2, the 2021 NFL draft effectively starts at this pick. The 49ers gave up a shedload of capital to get the Dolphins to move from 3 and with the uncertainty surrounding QB Jimmy Garoppolo, I have the third best QB in the draft going to the Bay area. The Ohio State product was effective while leading the Buckeyes to the National Championship Final, creating some initial hype of him going at number 2 or even at 1. With his talent at San Francisco, he could either start straight away if Garoppolo moves on (unlikely) or sit for a year behind Jimmy G, learning from Kyle Shanahan in the meantime. In this case, the 49ers would be a very dangerous team in his second year.
4) Kyle Pitts TE – Atlanta Falcons
In my opinion, Kyle Pitts is the best football player in the 2021 NFL draft class. Controversial take given the generational talent QB at the top of this mock draft but spending any time watching Pitts’s tape for the Florida Gators and you will understand why. At 6’6″, 245lbs and still running a 4.40 40, Pitts is an absolute matchup nightmare. With his size, he can be used as a traditional Y tight-end or use his speed and athleticism lined up wide that even some corners struggle to cover, let alone line-backers. The Falcons take the best player to give Matt Ryan a truly lethal weapon.
5) Penei Sewell OT – Cincinnati Bengals
Sewell forced teams interested in his services to evaluate his 2019 tape, opting out of the 2020 season, allowing others like Rashawn Slater to enter the picture for the best lineman in the class. Even with a years less film however, the Oregon blindside blocker is still above the rest. Cincinnati’s main issue last year was protecting their golden goose, shown no more obviously by the fact he sustained a season ending injury as a result of practically non-existent blocking all year. Sewell is a huge piece in rectifying this, a perfect match.
6) JaMarr Chase WR – Miami Dolphins
There are rumours that this years WR draft class is better than the studded class of 2020 and Chase is a big reason why. Another who opted out of the 2020 college season and watched as the LSU Tigers fell to a 5-5 record, Chase has been referred to in multiple interviews as the best receiver most college corners have played against. With a 40 time is the 4.3’s, he has the speed to stretch the field and be a deep threat but also precise route running means he is a threat anywhere on the field. The Dolphins would’ve also likely selected JaMarr Chase at 3 if they didn’t trade down, but now they get the best wideout and a load more picks to continue building around second year QB Tua Tagovailoa.
7) Trey Lance QB – Detroit Lions
Even with the first monster trade of the off season which saw long-time QB1 in Detroit Matthew Stafford move on to the sun of Los Angeles and former No.1 overall pick Jared Goff go the other way, it’s pretty obvious that the future of the QB position for the Lions is far from decided. Unless they give up a lot of draft capital to move into the top 3, the top QB’s will already be gone but Lance is also a good player and I don’t see the Lions passing on him. The North Dakota State prospect has a monster arm and good accuracy, he just lacks that something special the likes of Lawrence, Wilson or Fields have. There is also the chance that the 49ers take Mac Jones at 3, meaning that Fields could fall to Detroit here.
8) Jaylen Waddle WR – Carolina Panthers
The Panthers deciding to move on from Teddy Bridgewater after 1 season by replacing him with Sam Darnold eliminates them from the QB sweepstakes in my books. There’s a chance that they do take a player like Mac Jones and have him develop, but I just doubt they’d use a premium pick for that purpose. A year removed from taking defensive players in every round of the draft, they have a choice of two outstanding Alabama WR’s. For me, they go with Waddle but it could just as easily be Smith. Darnold gets a very good offensive weapon either way to pair with Robby Anderson.
9) Mac Jones QB – Denver Broncos
Denver drafted Drew Lock to be yet another John Elway heir-apparent, but as is the Bronco’s way, that hasn’t quite materialised. Given the pressure the front office has been facing and how much Lock struggled over the past year(s), it is reasonable to assume that Denver takes a punt with Mac Jones out of that Alabama championship winning team. Jones is a good pocket passer, some what of an anomaly in today’s NFL but had a bit of a difficult pro day in comparison to the other top QB’s in this class. By surrounding him with good talent, like Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy, there’s a decent chance Jones finds success at Mile High. Fun fact, Denver are only one of two teams (alongside Seattle) to never have drafted at No. 1 overall.
10) Patrick Surtain II CB – Dallas Cowboys
It isn’t normal that not a single defensive player is drafted within the top 10 and this is only just saved from happening. Dallas had a remarkably poor defence last year and they take one of the, if not the, best corners in the draft to start to address the issues they had in the secondary. Another of the winning Crimson Tide team, Surtain’s experience against some of the best receivers in this class will stand him in good stead to be a week 1 starter in the NFL.
11) Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB – New York Giants
The Giants got surprisingly close to winning footballs worst division last year, but that isn’t down to the strength of their team. They won’t win with Daniel Jones at the helm but without moving up, they are out of range of most of the round 1 worthy QB’s, so for me, they take a hard hitting field general to bolster the line-backing corps. Owusu-Koramoah was a part of the Notre Dame team that made it to the playoff semi finals and has rare levels of speed, athleticism and agility, able to slip blocks easily and could be a blitzing threat from the middle.
12) Rashawn Slater OT – Philadelphia Eagles
Another NFC East team no where near being able to compete with the best teams in the league last year. The Eagles have had substantial changes from top to bottom, with the Super-Bowl winning pair of Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz no longer being with the organisation. The team looked better with Jaylen Hurts at QB and by trading down, have signalled their faith in the young star. There is a more than decent chance the Eagles take another first round wideout, but I think it’ll be better for them to sure up that offensive line in front of their new QB1. Slater is a very good prospect, with some even ranking him above Oregon’s Sewell. The Eagles manage to fill an important position for years to come here.
13) DeVonta Smith WR – LA Chargers
Heisman Trophy-winning receiver DeVonta Smith will be a great asset to whatever team drafts him. The former Alabama player was a key part of that championship team with crisp route running and an innate understanding of how to get open, Smith is best described as ‘slippery’. This feels like an opportunity the Chargers can’t pass up, pairing Smith with Keenan Allen and Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert will be absolutely lethal.
14) Kwity Paye EDGE – Minnesota Vikings
One aspect that seemed to be synonymous with the Minnesota Vikings was a stout, bend-but-don’t-break defence. Last years Vikings defence shattered into a million pieces. They seem to have had an issue with edge rushers over the past year and even though Paye was another to opt out of last year, he is a freaky athlete and will provide both a short term fix and long term solution to the Vikings pass rush problems. He still has room to improve but when you have the physical gifts that Paye possesses, it shouldn’t be difficult for him to realise his potential under Mike Zimmer.
15) Kyle Trask QB – New England Patriots
It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if New England trade up for a QB given how aggressive they have been in free agency. I feel with one more losing season that Belichick could call it quits, so I see him going all out to redeem last year and retake the AFC East. If they do remain at 15 however, Kyle Trask is a QB with a lot of upside, but likely isn’t ready to start week 1. Sitting behind Newton until he is ready, learning Josh McDaniels system, would aid his development tremendously.
16) Jaycee Horn CB – Arizona Cardinals
There are arguments to suggest that Horn is the best CB in the draft and has an outstanding college resume in terms of the receivers he has had to battle this year and last. He’s got good speed and long arms, allowing him to be in the right position to break up or intercept passes more often that not. He’s also fixed an issue he had in his sophomore year where he didn’t use his hands on the line at all and with Patrick Peterson leaving the Cardinals this offseason, Horn could be the perfect replacement, if not eventually better.
17) Micah Parsons LB – Las Vegas Raiders
Pure talent and athleticism wise, Parsons is the top LB in this class, but character concerns could see him drop to 17 and behind Owusu-Koramoah (as I’ve predicted). However, this is unlikely to deter John Gruden and the Raiders who after spending a boatload of cash last year in free agency, saw none of their line-backer problems fixed. The Penn State defender could be the answer to these issues and his no nonsense attitude could be a perfect fit in the desert.
18) Christian Darrisaw OT – Miami Dolphins
As further proof that they are investing in Tua, the Dolphins select the next best tackle on the board. Darrisaw isn’t majorly outstanding but he is extremely atheletic, very quick, strong and flexible with the ability to deal with a variety of pass-rush moves, he would be a good fit in that Dolphins line. He does need to fix the occasional lapses in concentration and sometimes throwing his hands too low, allowing them to be easily swiped down, but with some coaching he could become a very dependable fixture in the Dolphins team.
19) Greg Newsome II CB – Washington Football Team
Washington’s defence was its main strength in the run to the play-offs last year yet I still have them taking defence at 19. The Northwestern corner is a very talented prospect with good speed and physicality with the ability to recover when slightly beaten, Newsome is great value here at 19. Improving that already good defence in the poor NFC East will allow for Fitzmagic and that offense to find it’s rhythm early on in the year.
20) Kadarius Toney WR – Chicago Bears
There are an awful lot of holes in this Bears offense. I don’t believe they have solved the QB issue with the FA signing of Dalton and at 20 are well out of the range of any rookie that could be a long term solution. Don’t be surprised if they end up trading up to a significantly higher spot. Having said that, if they do choose to stay in this position, I can’t see Allen Robinson signing a long term deal and franchise tagging him in consecutive years will be very expensive for Chicago. The Gators receiver has speed to stretch the field and secure hands, meaning he would be a good no. 2 receiver this year for him or Mooney to step up as the top target in 2022.
21) Jaelen Phillips EDGE – Indianapolis Colts
Phillips is a freaky athlete. The former 5 star recruit plays hard every snap and is very aware as a run defender and has elite speed for an edge rusher to get around blocks. He does have some durability concerns having missed significant time due to injury over the past few years which could cause him to slip further and he occasionally gets his pad level too high off the snap to have an effective rush. The Colts are a solid team and have been sneakily adding players over the past two off-season’s and adding Phillips on that D-line increases the chance that these Colts can really do something in 2021.
22) Gregory Rousseau EDGE – Tennessee Titans
The Titans have been a very consistent football team over the past two seasons but one area that they’ve seemed to struggle is getting to the opposing QB. Last season’s offseason signing of Jadeveon Clowney didn’t help matters much and they have an opportunity to at least go someway to addressing this with Rousseau. The rusher out of Miami, Rousseau is big body and is projected to be an NFL starting calibre player within two seasons. With only one season of college football behind him however, there is risk in this pick, but arguably one the Titans feel is worth it.
23) Caleb Farley CB – New York Jets
The Jets second 1st round pick focuses on the other side of the ball to new franchise QB Wilson. Farley is a good corner, out of Virginia Tech, with great speed and has the ability to also cover mismatch TE’s, he has natural ball playing and defensive instincts. New York have struggled on defence since Jamaal Adams left for Seattle so they pick up a new leader of the Gang Green secondary.
24) Najee Harris RB – Pittsburgh Steelers
It was no secret that Pittsburgh’s run to 11-0 last year was heavily reliant on Big Ben throwing short routes across the field and once better teams wised up to the fact that the Steelers run game was non-existent, the season fell apart. If the Steelers use this pick on an elite running back, which is risky given the durability of halfbacks, it could just as easily be Travis Etienne out of Clemson but I’ve gone with Harris due to his better ability running between the tackles. Pittsburgh will be able to start to develop a run game, making them a much more dangerous team.
25) Tevon Jenkins OT – Jacksonville Jaguars
What better way to commit and build around a franchise guy than to shore up the line in front of him so he doesn’t end up like Joe Burrow last year. Jenkins was a monster for Oklahoma State in his games with an ultra-aggressive playstyle which dominates in the run game. He is also pretty agile for a lineman and can easily read the moves in which edge rushers throw his way. He would be a great addition to the rebuilt Jaguars offense.
26) Alijah Vera-Tucker OT – Cleveland Browns
The Browns did what everyone knew the squad was capable of and won a playoff game for the first time in what felt like forever, by leaning heavily on a superb run game of tandem back Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. They are likely to keep with this same formula for the 2021 season and adding Vera-Tucker definitely bolsters this. He is an intelligent player who is more than able at tackle but with slight concerns about his arm length, could be shifted inside to guard. Either way it will be much harder to stop Cleveland’s ground and pound with this addition.
27) Elijah Moore WR – Baltimore Ravens
Another AFC North team with a reliance on the run game is the Ravens. 2019 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson has shown time and time again he is brilliant with his legs and in partnership with second year back J.K Dobbins, opposition defences will have to commit heavily to the box to negate the run, leaving the ever appealing option of play action passes to stretch the field. ‘Hollywood’ Brown has so far failed to live up to the expectations to be the Ravens No.1 receiver, opening up the chance for a new guy to come in an take this mantle, something I believe Moore can absolutely do.
28) Christian Barmore DT – New Orleans Saints
There is a rather strange feeling hanging around New Orleans after the inevitable departure of future hall of fame QB Drew Brees. The Saints appear to be content with allowing Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston to battle for the starting job, meaning they are unlikely to try to trade up for a signal caller. The squad is still extremely strong but after the free agency departure of Trey Hendrickson, they have a spot for the best D-tackle in this years draft class to provide pressure and run stuffing capabilities.
29) Zaven Collins LB – Green Bay Packers
In recent years, the Packers front office seems to be doing everything they can to not help Aaron Rodgers. They don’t have a bona fide No. 2 receiver nor a capable complement to Jaire Alexander but this low in the round all the best are gone, meaning that once again, Green Bay are a trade candidate to go up and grab a player like Farley. If they stay at 29, getting a new line-backer general like Collins isn’t a bad alternative.
30) Trevon Moehrig S – Buffalo Bills
GM Brandon Beane has been excellent for the Bills, carefully assembling a talented roster to become one of the best teams in the AFC. There isn’t much for them to improve on in this draft and Moehrig is an excellent safety. In partnership with Micah Hyde, Buffalo could have a great secondary tandem to counteract the pass-first offenses that have recently dominated the AFC. Speaking of which…
31) Liam Eichenburg OT – Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs found themselves getting badly humbled in last years Super Bowl. As I said in a previous post, QB Patrick Mahomes’ tendencies didn’t help out his offensive line and against a rush like the Buccs had, they were never likely to get anything going on that side of the ball. The Kansas decision was to cut both starting tackles from last year, both freeing up cap space and indicating the starting point to rebuild that line. Selecting Eichenburg from Notre Dame isn’t the flashiest pick but he will prove to be a solid tackle for years as the Chiefs try to climb back to the pinnacle of football.
32) Eric Stokes CB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa has the luxury of either selecting for value or trading out of the first round and being absolutely fine, seeing as they managed to resign and restructure pretty much all of their championship winning team. The needs of the team are very little, other than maybe trying to find a successor for when Brady eventually leaves. That type of value isn’t here at the end of the first, so I have them taking a very talented but project corner in Eric Stokes. The former Georgia corner has great athleticism and physicality and speed but needs time to develop his instincts, something he can be afforded in the elite defence in Tampa Bay.
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