I always enjoy being able to write these prediction pieces and I’m even more excited considering it is the first time I’ve been able to dive into the world of international rugby in one of my posts.
*Editors Note – this was written before the first round of matches*
This year’s Six Nations Championship is gearing up to be one of the most fascinating in recent memory, not just because there is a World Cup around the corner, but because of how evenly contested it is shaping up to be. Wales and England head into the tournament with ‘new’ head coaches, Christophe Galtier looks to build up some momentum for his side ahead of the RWC, Andy Farrell’s Ireland team are looking to rewrite the narrative that Les Bleus are going to run away with the whole thing, Italy and Scotland are… just looking to not be terrible and build toward the future.
Let’s not waste anymore time though, this is how I believe the final Championship table will look come March 18th
1 ) Ireland
There are two major factors as to why this is surprising. The first is simply how good this French side is and the second is that I am English. Yet I just can’t help but think this is one of those times where in Week 2, Ireland beat France in Paris and are simply too good for everyone else and just don’t slip up, collecting the Grand Slam on their way to Six Nations glory. Sexton appears to be back close to his best form and that is a fantastic positive for Ireland – his form usually correlates with a green victory. Beyond him though, they have fantastic ball carriers all over the pitch, along with some of the most physically powerful forwards of any side in world rugby that can impose their will on opposing packs at set pieces. It’s really hard to look past Ireland in this Championship but now that I’ve said it, they’ll probably lose to Italy in Rome and I really will look silly…
2 ) France
Ok so the title might have been slightly clickbait but given how talented the team is, anything other than a Grand Slam might feel like a failure in Paris. They have depth, they have power, they have the fitness and they have the awesome power of Melvyn Jaminet’s boot. France’s kicking game is perhaps the best in the world, and allows them to turn tight situations into massive territorial gains. There has been an increased focus on kicking as the rugby world realises the tactical pressure that can be applied through a strong kicking game and for France, it is arguably the reason they head into October’s World Cup as favourites, regardless of what happens in this tournament.
3 ) England
Maybe it is the fact that I’m English but surely logic dictates that England cannot perform worse than they did in last years edition. A loss to Scotland on the opening weekend set the tone for that campaign, but this year’s squad should feel refreshed and rejuvenated following the appointment of former Leicester coach Steve Borthwick as head coach, who already has some big decisions to make. Does he keep with the double pivot of Farrell and Smith at 12 and 10 or does he decide that Smith is the future of this England team and mould the team around the strengths of the ‘Quins fly-half. Does he try to implement a new tactical system in preparation for the RWC or continue with the mismatched system used by Eddie Jones as that is what those in his squad are likely to be used to. His decisions will be key as to how quickly England can recover as a rugby powerhouse.
4 ) Wales
Despite a recent Six Nations win, Wales were a team that flattered to deceive under former coach Wayne Pivac. Hired from the Scarlets, Pivac was meant to return Wales to their glory days, playing fun, expansive, exciting rugby. Instead, Wales are now looking backwards, straight into the kiwi eyes of Warren Gatland. A return to more functional, defensively solid brand of rugby is in order for Wales, but I still don’t see it being enough to overcome the talent of Ireland, England and France. Definitely a team to look out for as the rebuild under Gatland takes place, but being competitive at this tournament and the World Cup might be a step too soon.
5 ) Scotland
Another you could put down to my English bias but Scotland aren’t a good team. They battle and they play hard with grit and determination, but when push comes to shove, they simply do not have the personnel. Gregor Townsend isn’t a world beater of a coach, but he is good enough to get World Cup wins and the occasional big scalp (think England in the 2022 Six Nations). There just is something that always seems to be lacking about Scottish sides, that final half yard, that final bit of flair to change or win a game. Until they find this, they’re forever destined to continue the cycle of bottom half finishes and early exits.
6 ) Italy
This may come across as disrespect, but someone has to be last. The Azzuri have come on leaps and bounds in terms of their ability in the last couple years and they are starting to develop some genuinely world class players. They’re young, energetic and somewhat naïve, which is likely what will cost them in big games. Still, a win over Wales last year will hopefully be a catalyst to picking up more wins in this years tournament and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them end higher in the final table at the end of the tournament.
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